Вторичные эффекты антироссийских санкций для финской экономики
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2026-81-7-25Ключевые слова:
санкции, метод синтетической контрольной группы, Финляндия, РоссияАннотация
Работа посвящена количественной оценке издержек, связанных с применением санкций странами-инициаторами, через использование естественного эксперимента—ужесточения санкций против России. В качестве объекта исследования выбрана Финляндия—страна с исторически тесными торговыми и экономическими связями с Россией, что делает ее особенно уязвимой к вторичным эффектам санкционной политики. Путем использования метода синтетической контрольной группы, динамика реального ВВП Финляндии в 2022–2024 гг. сравнивается с контрфактическим сценарием, построенным на основе 23 экономик, не вводивших санкции против России. В среднем эффект составил 8.4% ВВП, а в пересчете на ВВП 2010 г. совокупные потери Финляндии составили приблизительно 58.7 млрд долларов США, что демонстрирует высокую цену разрыва экономических связей Финляндии с Россией.Организации
Исследование осуществлено в рамках Программы фундаментальных исследований НИУ ВШЭ.Скачивания
Библиографические ссылки
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Abadie A., Diamond A., Hainmueller J. (2010). Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105 (490), 493–505. DOI: 10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746.
Abadie A., Diamond A., Hainmueller J. (2015). Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. American Journal of Political Science, 59 (2), 495–510. DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12116.
Abadie A., Gardeazabal J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque country. American Economic Review, 93 (1), 113–132. DOI: 10.1257/000282803321455188.
Ahn D. P., Ludema R. D. (2020). The sword and the shield: The economics of targeted sanctions. European Economic Review, 130, 103587. DOI: 10.1016/J.EUROECOREV.2020.103587.
Allen J. S. (2021). Do targeted trade sanctions against Chinese technology companies affect US firms? Evidence from an event study. Business and Politics, 23 (3), 330–343. DOI: 10.1017/bap.2020.21.
Allen S. H. (2008). The domestic political costs of economic sanctions. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 52 (6), 916–944. DOI: 10.1177/0022002708325044.
Attia H., Grauvogel J., von Soest C. (2020). The termination of international sanctions: Explaining target compliance and sender capitulation. European Economic Review, 129, 103565. DOI: 10.1016/J.EUROECOREV.2020.103565.
Batzella F. (2024). Slowly but surely? Assessing EU actorness in energy sanctions against Russia. Energy Policy, 192, 114233. DOI: 10.1016/J.ENPOL.2024.114233.
Bělín M., Hanousek J. (2021). Which sanctions matter? Analysis of the EU/Russian sanctions of 2014. Journal of Comparative Economics, 49 (1), 244–257. DOI: 10.1016/J.JCE.2020.07.001.
Besedeš T., Goldbach S., Nitsch V. (2017). You're banned! The effect of sanctions on German cross-border financial flows. Economic Policy, 32 (90), 263–318. DOI: 10.1093/EPOLIC/EIX001.
Besedeš T., Goldbach S., Nitsch V. (2021). Cheap talk? Financial sanctions and non-financial firms. European Economic Review, 134, 103688. DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103688.
Borin A., Conteduca F. P., di Stefano E., Gunnella V., Mancini M., Panon L. (2023). Trade decoupling from Russia. International Economics, 175, 25–44. DOI: 10.1016/J.INTECO.2023.05.001.
Born B., Müller G. J., Schularick M., Sedláček P. (2019). The costs of economic nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit experiment. The Economic Journal, 129 (623), 2722–2744. DOI: 10.1093/ej/uez020.
Chupilkin M., Javorcik B., Peeva A., Plekhanov A. (2025). Economic sanctions and intermediated trade. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 115, 568–572. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20251083.
Crozet M., Hinz J. (2021). Friendly fire: The trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions. Economic Policy, 35 (101), 97–146. DOI: 10.1093/EPOLIC/EIAA006.
Ghironi F. P., Kim D., Ozhan G. K. (2024). International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with sanctions. Working Paper 32188, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Gorodnichenko Y., Mendoza E. G., Tesar L. L. (2012). The Finnish great depression: From Russia with love. American Economic Review, 102 (4), 1619–1644. DOI: 10.1257/aer.102.4.1619.
Görg H., Jacobs A., Meuchelböck S. (2024). Who is to suffer? Quantifying the impact of sanctions on German firms. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 228, 106767. DOI: 10.1016/J.JEBO.2024.106767.
Gulan A., Haavio M., Kilponen J. (2021). Can large trade shocks cause crises? The case of the Finnish–Soviet trade collapse. Journal of International Economics, 131, 103480. DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103480.
Hufbauer G. C., Schott J. J., Elliott K. A., Oegg B. (2007). Economic sanctions reconsidered: History and current policy. 3rd ed. Washington: Institute for International Economics.
Kutan A., Yigit T. (2007). European integration, productivity growth and real convergence. European Economic Review, 51 (6), 1370–1395. DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2006.11.001.
Mancini M., Conteduca F. P., Borin A. (2024). The real-time impact of the war on Russian imports: A synthetic control method approach. World Trade Review, 23, 433–447. DOI: 10.1017/S1474745623000484.
Morgan T. C., Syropoulos C., Yotov Y. V. (2023). Economic sanctions: Evolution, consequences, and challenges. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 37 (1), 3–30. DOI: 10.1257/jep.37.1.3.
Neuenkirch M., Neumeier F. (2015). The impact of UN and US economic sanctions on GDP growth. European Journal of Political Economy, 40, 110–125. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2015.09.001.
Wang S., Wen J., Zhao X., Zhou X. (2025). Impacts of international sanctions on sender countries' innovation. Economic Analysis and Policy, 85, 1357–1373. DOI: 10.1016/J.EAP.2025.01.026.
Yan G., Chen Q. (2023). Synth2: Synthetic control method with placebo tests, robustness test, and visualization. Stata Journal, 23 (3), 597–624. DOI: 10.1177/1536867X231195278.
