Some approaches to estimating treatment effects and empirical investigation of the robustness of estimates to sampling design

Abstract

In connection with the beginning of the SMO and the introduction of unprecedented sanctions against Russia, studies of the effects of these macro shocks on the Russian economy are becoming particularly relevant. The paper examines the possibility of using three approaches for these purposes: the method of synthetic control, the difference in differences and the synthetic difference in differences. As an empirical justification for the adequacy of the estimates obtained, we present a comparison of the calculation results based on the mentioned approaches applied to three different samples of countries. We constructed samples according to various principles, but the evaluation results appeared stable. Our research identifies a statistically significant stable negative effect on Russian imports at current prices. We did not obtain a relevant and stable effect on exports. Two approaches were found for real GDP (the difference in differences and the synthetic difference in differences) revealed a statistically significant adverse impact. These effects appeared when we added data for 2023 to the sample.