Measuring the impact of economic sanctions on the Russian economy using the synthetic control group method
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2024-74-104-123Keywords:
экономические санкции, метод синтетической контрольной группы, принцип однородности, принцип отсутствия интерференцииAbstract
The research deals with the synthetic control group method application to assess the causal effect of economic sanctions on the Russian economy. The analysis of SCG method assumptions to the problem allowed us to establish that the most problematic issue is comparison group formation. We use the source data from the World Development Indicators database. GDP by PPP per capita was an outcome variable. The application of the method to assessing the impact of sanctions pressure shows that it is possible to select the weights in such a way as to ensure good closeness of the indicators of real and synthetic Russia in the pre-event period. Such states as Kazakhstan, Argentina, Brazil, and the USA were most in demand for the formation of a synthetic Russia. However, the estimates are unstable to changes in the set of countries used to form the synthetic control.Agencies
Данное исследование выполнено в рамках государственного задания УФИЦ РАН № 075-01134-23-00 на 2023 г. и на плановый период 2024 и 2025 гг.Downloads
References
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Abadie A., Gardeazabal J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country. American Economic Review, 93 (1), 112–132. DOI: 10.1257/000282803321455188.
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Abadie A., Diamond A., Hainmueller J. (2011). Synth: An R package for synthetic control methods in comparative case studies. Journal of Statistical Software, 42 (13), 1–17. DOI: 10.18637/jss.v042.i13.
Abadie A., Diamond A., Hainmueller J. (2015). Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. American Journal of Political Science, 59 (2), 495–510. DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12116.
Athey S., Imbens G. W. (2017). The state of applied econometrics: Causality and policy evaluation. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31 (2), 3–32. DOI: 10.1257/jep.31.2.3.
Barseghyan G. (2019). Sanctions and counter-sanctions: What did they do? BOFIT Discussion Papers, 24/2019. https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:fi:bof-201912101702.
Bělín M., Hanousek J. (2021). Which sanctions matter? Analysis of the EU/Russian sanctions of 2014. Journal of Comparative Economics, 49 (1), 244–257. DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2020.07.001.
Campos N., Coricelli F., Moretti L. (2018) Institutional integration and economic growth in Europe. Journal of Monetary Economics, 103, 88–104. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.08.001.
Cavallo E., Galiani S., Noy I., Pantano J. (2013). Catastrophic natural disasters and economic growth. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 95 (5), 1549–1561. DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00413.
Dizaji S., van Bergeijk P. (2013). Potential early phase success and ultimate failure of economic sanctions: A VAR approach with an application to Iran. Journal of Peace Research, 50 (6), 721–736. DOI: 10.1177/0022343313485487.
Farzanegan M. (2013). Effects of international financial and energy sanctions on Iran’s informal economy. SAIS Review, 33 (1), 13–36. DOI: 10.1353/sais.2013.0008.
Gharehgozli O. (2017). An estimation of the economic cost of recent sanctions on Iran using the synthetic control method. Economics Letters, 157, 141–144. DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2017.06.008.
Hufbauer G., Schott J., Elliott K., Oegg B. (2008). Economic sanctions reconsidered. 3rd edition. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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Pestova A., Mamonov M. (2019). Should we care? The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy. BOFIT Discussion Paper, 13/2019. https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:fi:bof-201907291308.
Abadie A. (2021). Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects. Journal of Economic Literature, 59 (2), 391–425. DOI: 10.1257/jel.20191450.
Abadie A., Gardeazabal J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country. American Economic Review, 93 (1), 112–132. DOI: 10.1257/000282803321455188.
Abadie A., Diamond A., Hainmueller J. (2010). Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493–505. DOI: 10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746.
Abadie A., Diamond A., Hainmueller J. (2011). Synth: An R package for synthetic control methods in comparative case studies. Journal of Statistical Software, 42 (13), 1–17. DOI: 10.18637/jss.v042.i13.
Abadie A., Diamond A., Hainmueller J. (2015). Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. American Journal of Political Science, 59 (2), 495–510. DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12116.
Athey S., Imbens G. W. (2017). The state of applied econometrics: Causality and policy evaluation. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31 (2), 3–32. DOI: 10.1257/jep.31.2.3.
Barseghyan G. (2019). Sanctions and counter-sanctions: What did they do? BOFIT Discussion Papers, 24/2019. https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:fi:bof-201912101702.
Bělín M., Hanousek J. (2021). Which sanctions matter? Analysis of the EU/Russian sanctions of 2014. Journal of Comparative Economics, 49 (1), 244–257. DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2020.07.001.
Campos N., Coricelli F., Moretti L. (2018) Institutional integration and economic growth in Europe. Journal of Monetary Economics, 103, 88–104. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.08.001.
Cavallo E., Galiani S., Noy I., Pantano J. (2013). Catastrophic natural disasters and economic growth. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 95 (5), 1549–1561. DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00413.
Dizaji S., van Bergeijk P. (2013). Potential early phase success and ultimate failure of economic sanctions: A VAR approach with an application to Iran. Journal of Peace Research, 50 (6), 721–736. DOI: 10.1177/0022343313485487.
Farzanegan M. (2013). Effects of international financial and energy sanctions on Iran’s informal economy. SAIS Review, 33 (1), 13–36. DOI: 10.1353/sais.2013.0008.
Gharehgozli O. (2017). An estimation of the economic cost of recent sanctions on Iran using the synthetic control method. Economics Letters, 157, 141–144. DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2017.06.008.
Hufbauer G., Schott J., Elliott K., Oegg B. (2008). Economic sanctions reconsidered. 3rd edition. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Laudati D., Pesaran M. H. (2023). Identifying the effects of sanctions on the Iranian economy using newspaper coverage. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 38 (3), 271–294. DOI: 10.1002/jae.2947.
Pestova A., Mamonov M. (2019). Should we care? The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy. BOFIT Discussion Paper, 13/2019. https://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:fi:bof-201907291308.
