Some approaches to estimating treatment effects and empirical investigation of the robustness of estimates to sampling design
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2025-78-5-27Keywords:
метод синтетического контроля, разность разностей, синтетическая разность разностей, синтетический двойник, эффект воздействия, макрошоки, санкцииAbstract
In connection with the beginning of the SMO and the introduction of unprecedented sanctions against Russia, studies of the effects of these macro shocks on the Russian economy are becoming particularly relevant. The paper examines the possibility of using three approaches for these purposes: the method of synthetic control, the difference in differences and the synthetic difference in differences. As an empirical justification for the adequacy of the estimates obtained, we present a comparison of the calculation results based on the mentioned approaches applied to three different samples of countries. We constructed samples according to various principles, but the evaluation results appeared stable. Our research identifies a statistically significant stable negative effect on Russian imports at current prices. We did not obtain a relevant and stable effect on exports. Two approaches were found for real GDP (the difference in differences and the synthetic difference in differences) revealed a statistically significant adverse impact. These effects appeared when we added data for 2023 to the sample.Agencies
Исследование выполнено в рамках проекта П129-11-24 «Оценка влияния российских внешнеторговых ограничений и торговых барьеров третьих стран на экономику и внешнюю торговлю России и ее торговых партнеров» в ЦТПИ ВАВТ при Минэкономразвития России.Downloads
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Galiani S., Quistorff B. (2017). The synth runner package: Utilities to automate synthetic control estimation using synth. The Stata Journal, 17 (4), 834–849. DOI: 10.1177/1536867X1701700404.
Goryunov A., Ageshina E., Lavrentev I., Peretyatko P. (2023). Estimating the effect of Russia’s development policy in the Far Eastern region: The synthetic control approach. Прикладная эконометрика, 72, 58–72. DOI: 10.22394/1993‑7601‑2023‑72‑58‑72.
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Rasoulinezhad E. (2016). Investigation of sanctions and oil price effects on the Iran-Russia trade by using the gravity model. Вестник СПбГУ, 5 (2), 68–84. DOI: 10.21638/11701/spbu05.2016.204.
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Wooldridge J. M. (2005). Fixed-effects and related estimators for correlated random-coefficient and treatment-effect panel data models. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 87 (2), 385–390. DOI: 10.1162/0034653053970320.
Wooldridge J. M. (2007). Inverse probability weighted estimation for general missing data problems. Journal of Econometrics, 141 (2), 1281–1301. DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.02.002.
Wooldridge J. M. (2009). Difference-in-differences estimation. Quantile, 6, 25–47 (in Russian).
